Hi Chris,
Here's an answer to your pondering of why Google or anyone else does what they do....not a "good" answer, but the answer.

IMHO, most of what has been done to impact SEO has more to do with curbing the game playing than anything else. It helps to understand that bots are....well, they're still pretty much still sitting at the state of the art of technology of 1995 (or so). Which makes it easy to game them. Add to that the fact that many folks played significant games with meta tagging and such. The end result is that without someone doing something it would become nearly impossible to actually find any of the content that you or your site customers are looking for. So the "something" that has and is being done is directed toward trying to stem the tide of game playing and to try to give everyone the best shot at finding what they want.
One thing that I'd like to toss out -- think of this as something to ponder...what makes anyone think that bots **actually** comply with "nofollow" tags? If you closely and frequently follow your site logs you might be surprised to see what pages are accessed by bots of some kind. What most folks don't understand is that there is no rule, regulation, law, etc., which says that a bot cannot index and follow any and all tags. The construct of each individual bot determines whether or not it follows the robots.txt or meta tag conventions. But it is entirely up to the bot source.
And perhaps here is an even better thing to ponder....what makes anyone think that Google's bots comply with those tags? What the vast majority of folks don't seem to know (although Google readily admits to it) is that Google complies with the "googlebot" tag. Which is separate and in addition to any other bot tags. So, absent the googlebot tag...well, you get the idea.
For example, if you want Google's bots to not follow any link, this is the only tag that will be followed:
<meta name="googlebot" content="nofollow">
Other useful tags include:
<meta name="googlebot" content="noindex">
<meta name="googlebot" content="noarchive">
Or a combined: <meta name="googlebot" content="noarchive, nofollow">
And here's one that you also may not be familiar with:
<meta name="robots" content="NOODP">
The above one is to ask bots to not use any of the site descriptions created at the Open Directory Project (ODP). Or to be sure it ALSO includes Google: <meta name="googlebot" content="NOODP">
That one prevents Google from not using the site descriptions created at the Open Directory Project (ODP).
But another problem is that even if you don't publish any links and even with bot exclusions, the first time that somone does follow that...then the URL will likely appear in the referrer log at the other server and so then it is likely that it will then be followed by Googlebot.
And just when you think that you have a handle on all of this...let me throw another wonk factor into it -- if your site or the site that you're connected to are included in the Google Feedfetcher or Google Reader....then ALL robots.txt files will be ignored (Google specifically designed them to do that)....and I strongly suspect that means that bot tags are also ignored.
And one last point to ponder....if PR is your thingie...meaning what you would like to focus on or worry about (at the moment), think about what might be the impact to your own PR if you had no outbound links to any site other than your own. For example, what if you created 40 different sites...each with relevant and related content...each with outbound links which contain keywords of focus...and you link all your sites together in one big cross-listed daisy chain? And what if you did that...and then had very few, and carefully selected outbound links to other "expert" sites? In short, what if all your page bleeds were to yourself, but at a large scale? Something to wonder about, isn't it?

Regards,
Dan